The Library
of

Cold War Weapon, Space, and Other System Costs

Abstract
Revised 9/2/10

This Site Provides:a free library of historical cost estimates of weapon, space, and other systems and components planned, developed, procured, and operated during the Cold War by the United States and its Allies. The selected systems comprise mostly DOD acquisition programs, also many NASA programs, some foreign military programs, and some major manufacturing company programs.

Sources: are based on popular trade magazines and newspaper clippings, research reports, and cost and budget studies by prominent organizations, and U. S. Congressional Hearings.

Development: of the database was started informally in the 1950/1960s by several cost estimators. By 1980, it contained over 1,000 card records, mostly handwritten, some typed. Each card presented a system cost or budget estimate, plus supporting information, excerpts, technical engineering details, and the source document title, publishing organization, and date. The collection of these cards was filed away in boxes, stored for thirty years, and only recently discovered. The cards are being converted to digital format to form the database of the library. They now total 1,184, and when finished will be about 1,500 organized into 16 PDF groups of similar kinds of functional systems.

Objective: is to provide a free public service for historical research and cost educational purposes.

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SECTION 1

The Library
Of
Cold War Weapon, Space, And Other System Costs

Prepared by Heuston Consulting, Inc., April 2009

INTRODUCTION
Text Revised 8/16/11

This Library provides an organized list of selected references to authoritative, published, publicly available, historical cost estimates of Cold War weapon, space, and other related systems. The references started to be collected informally, self-initiated, by hand by a few young cost engineers and estimators in the 1950s-1960s to be used by them as bench marks, order of magnitude checks, analogous reference points, and observations for statistical cost estimating relationships. Actual cost data for completed contracts were rare in those early days and the new equipment systems to be estimated were very unlike any existing systems. The collection of these historical cost data became valuable references, and grew over a long period of time into a sizeable box of over 1,000 handwritten cards, and into what can now be called a Library.

Reviewing this collection in 2010, the systems for which cost estimates were recorded appear to be mostly acquisition programs of the U. S. Department of Defense, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, a few foreign military programs, and some major aircraft and electronic manufacturing company programs. The specific sources of each cost data in the collection were fully described in the card records. In general, the data were taken from popular trade journals (e.g., Aviation Week & Space Technology, Missiles and Rockets), major newspaper clippings, many published formal reports from research institutions (where there were no security classifications or restrictions or caveats), and many Appropriations Committee Hearings of both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

At some moment in 2007 or 2008, the box of cards was discovered, and a decision was made to make them available to cost engineers anywhere. But most were handwritten and impossible to describe to formalize. They had to be retyped and converted to a computer file; and so, this Library project was initiated to be free, no charges, and no registration or passwords.

The original card file box was organized into sixteen major functional groups that were of interest to cost engineers and cost estimators in the 1960s. These groups have been retained, even though, some may not be exactly appropriate. The handwritten cost reference cards that have now been converted are organized into the following groups:

• Aircraft-Military
• Aircraft-Related Commercial Systems
• Budgets
• Command and Control
• Communications
• Components
• Engines
• Facilities
• Ground Radars
• Ground Vehicles
• Launch Vehicles and Boosters
• Missiles
• Miscellaneous
• Personnel
• Ships
• Spacecraft and Satellite

The systems and costs of each group are presented in PDF files for easy browsing online or copying for home use. The systems in each PDF are listed by titles, for example, B-1, F-15, Minuteman, Titan IIIC, and Apollo. The number of system card reference cost estimates in a group range from 4 to 225. There may be only one estimate for a system or several estimates for the same system recorded over a period of months or years, showing in some cases, the escalation of the unit or total program costs from year to year as related to changes in quantities and/or technical specifications.

There are many kinds of costs in these records. A few examples include gross total program and budget costs by fiscal year, costs per unit produced for given numbers of units, maintenance and operating costs per hour or month, or total life cycle costs. Many records present separate costs for research and development, procurement, operations, and training. Some present extensive Work Breakdown Structures. The number of detailed WBS cost element estimates for each system, segregated by components or subsystems, ranges up to about fifty for some of the more complex and expensive programs.

To find a specific system without manually scanning through each PDF, try our INDEX OF SYSTEMS for each PDF group. These are organized by PDF Title and show a list of all systems by name and or equipment identification, Cost Reference Numbers, and page numbers within the specific PDF. A sample Index is presented for only Aircraft-Military at the end of this site. The complete Index for this group can be obtained by request. Indexes for the remaining PDF groups are being prepared and will be available later.

Development of the Database of PDFS is almost finished and any comments will be appreciated.

SECTION 2

BACKGROUND

The dates of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies are pegged by some historians between the mid 1940s and the early 1990s. During this period the costs of military weapon systems became of great interest not only within the U. S. government, but to the general public, press, and defense contractors. These systems were being studied and proposed to counter the predicted threat of nuclear war with the Soviets. Analyses were made to compare many alternatives that might achieve planned military goals, including alternative operational quantities and alternative deployments. The objective was to help top level defense management decide which was the best alternative.

The art and science of estimating military effectiveness and costs of proposed future weapons that might take 10 years to develop was unknown in the 1950s. Military department budget planning was on a year to year appropriations basis and segmented into such independent categories as equipment, facilities, and personnel, among others. It was not possible to examine the total long term consequences (military combat results and the economic costs) from research and development to operational deployment and retirement of specific new kinds of missiles, aircraft, and other systems. New analytical methodology was badly needed and was initially promoted by the Air Force and its non-profit research contractors. The overall methodology was often known as "Systems Analysis," and more generally as cost-effectiveness analysis or cost benefit analysis. It eventually took on formal procedural requirements for programming and budgeting by all of the Department of Defense and its contractors.

During these early years, government and its research contractors were able to collect and analyze useful historical cost data, some classified and some unclassified, upon which to project these future total life cycle weapon system costs for research and development, equipment production and procurement, and operations under various planning options being considered by the military and the administration. The cost estimating technique was sometimes called "parametric cost estimating" with the use of statistical cost models and "Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs)." Methodology is by now well documented by DoD, the military services, NASA, DISA, and many government departments and agencies.

Private contractors, on the other hand, were limited to their own proprietary pricing and contract data and had to bid and offer analytical estimates in their solicited and non solicited reports to the government with much less supportable cost estimates and methodology. A few contractors had their own statistical cost estimating models, based on their previous production programs, but these were usually focused on micro models of detailed equipment specifications of size, weight, specific material, electronic complexity, fabrication methods, and labor cost-quantity learning curves. The contractors often were hard pressed to find suitable historical cost sources of analogous systems in the general market place in order to gain general insight and project their gross dollar estimates of system costs.

As a consequence, public sources of estimates appearing in trade journals and the general press became valuable and much sought after inputs to these cost effectiveness studies by engineers in private companies, even if they had some uneasy feelings about the authority and accuracy of the public press data.

Now in 2009, a lot of information about cost estimating and Cold War weapon systems can be found in standard search engines. However, cost estimates of specific systems, particularly the smaller systems, are almost impossible to find on the Web.

This LIBRARY offers a historical database for researchers and cost analysts. Current military systems, of course, are very different than those in the Cold War, and cost estimators are probably not faced with the same kind of estimating problems. Using these data directly in CERs now is pretty academic. However, these historical records need to be preserved in a computerized database for Internet reference. They are offered free in this Web site as a public service

Summary of Categories and Conversions of Systems in the Library Database

* In addition to the 1184 cost references shown above in this library, about 200 were
omitted for the following reasons:

1. The specific organization, company, or agency responsible for publishing the
   referenced cost estimate was not clearly identified on the handwritten card.
2. The hand writing was not clear enough. Only a few cards were typed.
3. The card had 40 year old abbreviations that could not be interpreted.
4. In a few cards, the source of the cost estimate is identified only as a person to
   person communication, an internal memo, a personal telephone call to somebody
   unspecified.
5. The estimate is referenced to some other source, without telling explicitly which
   organization it came from, and after 40 years there is no way to identify the
   company or the report. Although most of these types of cost estimates look
   official, interesting, and probably important, it was decided to leave these out of
   the digital converted references.
6. Several cost reference cards and some with a single titled system consisted of
   many cards that are so long and detailed that it was difficult and time consuming to tabulate all the facts and figures. We tried but gave up, and in some cases,
   provided only a total program cost without supporting details.
7. A few cards are copies of charts and graphs and some are with cost estimating
   relationships in graph form that are not reproducible.

Library Updating

This Library is being renewed and revitalized step by step, piece by piece, and category by category.   Organizations are being contacted to check on the availability of old and new cost data about the cold war.  These organizations include the RAND Corporation, RAND’s Air Force Project RAND, Aerospace Corporation, Mitre Corporation, Institute for Defense Analysis, Boos Allen Hamilton, Defense Technical Information Center, the Government Accountability Office, House and Senate Appropriations Hearings, Library of Congress, Naval Post Graduate School, Armed Forces Journal, The National War College, Army War College, and the Air University.  Several Web search engines are also being accessed. 

Organization of the Database

The computerized cost database is being organized and converted into PDF's for easier browsing into the following levels of detail:

1. The major card catalog categories are the original 40 year old categories, and appear a bit outdated.  They may be changed in future updated versions of this site.
2. The secondary level sub-categories, where appropriate, are grouped into broad types of weapon, such as, "Bombers," and "Fighter Aircraft and Others" within "Military Aircraft," and "ICBMs," and "IRBM’s," and "Other Missiles" within "Missiles."
3. The third level lists the cost references by specific weapons, for example, Atlas, Titan, and Minuteman within "ICBMs," and B-52, and B-1 within "Bombers."  In other words, each weapon system may show from one to about ten cost references published by various organizations (e.g., Aviation Week, Interavia, Missiles and Rockets, Senate Appropriations Committee Hearings, the RAND Corporation) at various months and years from 1950 to 1990.

What is a "Cost Reference"?

A Cost Reference is a single composite data entry in this Library, which presents a cost estimate or estimates about some piece of equipment or total system, either military or commercial, that was planned, developed, tested, procured, operated, or cancelled during the Cold War. The estimates may be a simple cost per unit or total program cost depending on the amount of cost element details in the original source document. The "Discussion" material that follows the estimates will usually explain the context of the estimate, that is, what went into the figures, what is included and excluded, and comments about the figures or the acquisition problems. These Cost References are either quotations or paraphrased, and are usually excerpts from specific pages of the original published source, which are always indicated.

Two examples of cost references are shown below just as they appear in the "Military Aircraft," and "Missile" PDF No. 1 and 2. The first line shows the cost reference number (e.g., AM89, and M123) with the title of the system ("Helicopter Maintenance" and "Titan III-3X). The second line shows the cost data or reference to any following data. The third line shows any backup or supporting information. At the bottom is the explicit source, organization, and page number. The forth line is the date recorded. The remaining PDFs follow the same format. You can see that there is a wide variety of cost data, amount of detail, and supporting discussions in the PDFs.

AM89 – Helicopter Maintenance
            Cost – as follows for Army, Navy, and Air force
            Discussion – see table below

For Navy and Air Force, See the Full Cost Reference in the Military Aircraft PDF#!.
Source – DoD 1964, House Hearing, Subcommittee of Appropriations Committee, 88th Congress, 1st Session, Part 4, p 209.
            Recorded – November 15, 1963.

M123 – Titan III-3X
            Cost – Development = $44.7 million
Discussion – Our estimate based upon the preliminary work done with the contractors, however, is $44.7 million.  This includes fabrication and launch of the first vehicle.
            It does not include the modifications to launch facilities and ground equipment.
Our estimate for these alternations, including installation and checkout of all the equipment, comes to $26.8 million.
This adds up to $71.5 million, which is the amount programmed for fiscal years 1965-1966.
Source – Hearings, Committee On Aeronautics & Space Science, Senate, 89th Congress, 1st Session, January 26, 27, 1965, p 128.
Recorded – January 4, 1966.

SECTION 3

AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE CONTENT
OF
THE LIBRARY OF COLD WAR WEAPON, SPACE, AND OTHER SYSTEM
COSTS

Changes of Costs
For the F-111 Fighter/Bomber Aircraft During Its Program Life
Revised 6/23/11

This Section presents a sample of the historical trend of costs for the F-111 from 1964 to 1970.  It shows the kinds of system costs and changes in costs over the middle part of its program life time.  The sample consists of 6 cost references and 2 technical references shown in the following 2 tables in this Section.

The purpose is to illustrate the content of The Library of Cold War Weapon, Space, and Other System Costs and its database and indexes in “Section 4 - Database PDFs.”  The F-111 system was selected because The Library has more cost references for this aircraft than most other systems; and a small sample could illustrate the kinds of estimates that cost estimators find in the database; and also how these costs change over many years of the life of an important system program.

The F-111 was a variable-geometry strike fighter and bomber initiated by Department of Defense Request for Proposal, RFP, in 1961, and developed and produced by General Dynamics as the prime contractor with a fixed price incentive contract..  It was first flown in 1961, first operational service in 1967, contract terminated in 1969, the 563 aircraft produced before termination were retired from service in 1996, and the E version retired in 1998.  There was much written about the F-111 program that is now available from Google and Yahoo search engines.  It is mostly engineering and operational historical data. There is hardly anything on costs.

This Library has 37 separate references to the costs of the F-111 from 1964 to 1970, available in PDF 1 in the following Section 4.  These references are for Air Force, Navy, British, and Australian program variations, and both fighter and bomber versions.  There were several variations in designs, designated F-111 A/B/C/D/E/F/G/K, and also FB-111.  Types of costs in the 37 references include Total Program, Production, Research and Development, and Unit Flyaway Costs.  Most of the 37 references also include bits of program, technical, and historical information about the F-111. 

PDF 1 is a collection of about 217 references grouped by general major military aircraft mission functions, Bombers, Fighters, and Helicopters/Cargo.  The F-111 is one of the important aircraft systems within the Fighter Group.  Each reference may contain one or more estimates, or both costs and technical data, or only program and technical data.  A description of these references and how they were collected was presented previously in Section 1 – Introduction, and Section 2 – Background.

A companion to PDF 1 is titled PDF 16, and is also available in Section 4.  It is an Index to military aircraft costs that lists “cost reference numbers” and “page numbers” tracked from PDF 1 and grouped under the same major mission functions.  In PDF 16, under the subtitle “Fighters,” these numbers are listed for the 37 F-111 references.  Specific aircraft versions of interest can be found by tracking from PDF 16 to the specific page and reference number in PDF 1.  Other system Index PDFs are also available in Section 4.     

The sources of the F-111 data are from Aviation Week, Washington Star, Interavia, Business Week, Missiles and Space Daily, Technology Week, Astronautics and Aeronautics, Armed Forces Management, and Senate Appropriations Committee Records in which Secretary of Defense McNamara provided testimony.  Data from these and other public sources for other kinds of weapon, space, and related systems of the Cold War Period can be found listed by PDF numbers 2 through 15 in Section 4

The following Table 3-1 summarizes the major changes in total program costs and unit flyaway costs from 1964 to 1970.  The estimates show the changes in costs over the 6 year period in the dollar price level of the year of the reported data.  Additional cost data can be found in the remaining 31 cost references in PDF 1.

Table 3-1
Sample of Costs of the F-111 Program from 1964-1970.

Many modifications and changes to the F-111 Program took place during its life time.  A few of these, such as the Mk II Avionics and the Pratt and Whitney Engines, can be found in the appropriate cost references in PDF 1.  A sample of the specifications is described in the following Table 3-2.

Table 3-2
Sample of F-111 Technical & Management Information

General and detailed engineering information about the F-111 during its program life can be found in Wikipedia and its referenced Web sites.  Unfortunately, as mentioned before, there are only a very few cost figures in these references.  One is an estimate in 1973 US dollars for a unit flyaway cost of $10.3M for 563 aircraft produced.

It should be noted in closing this Section 3, that similar collections of a span of costs over a period of time for other specific single military aircraft systems can also be found in PDF 1 and its Index PDF !6, such as the C-5 Transport, XB-70, and the B-1.  Also please note that PDFs 2 through 15, contain spans of historical cost references for specific systems, such as Missiles (e.g. Atlas, Titan, Polaris and Nike), Launch Vehicles (e.g. Titan III and Saturn), Spacecraft (e.g. Apollo), and Commercial Aircraft (e.g. DC-8/10, Concorde, and 747).

For more detailed operational and technical information on the F-111 program, access the following Web sites in Table 3-3.

Table 3-3
List of Recommended Links for F-111 Information
           

SECTION 4

DATABASE PDFS
Revised 5/23/11

For Access: Click on Appropriate PDF Number in Blue in the Following List

The Database of this Library is presented in two types of PDF’s: (1) Cost Category PDF’s, and (2) Index PDF’s. These are shown below in the List of Database PDF's.

The Cost Category PDF’s are listed by Major Categories of Systems (e.g., Aircraft-Military, Aircraft-Related Commercial, Missiles, and Spacecraft & Satellites). These PDF’s present citations of historical cost estimates listed by specific system (e.g., F-5, C-5, and Manned Orbital Laboratory) for each of the major categories.

The Index PDF’s are also listed by Major Categories. These Indexes present page numbers and citation numbers where you can find the appropriate cost data in the accompanying Cost Category PDF’s. Notice that there are usually many cost citations recorded for the period of twenty or thirty years of the Cold War for many of the given specific system. Only two Indexes of the most popular and most populated Categories are listed at this time. The Indexes marked “na” for not available are in preparation and can be requested by Contacting Us, heustonconsulting@cox.net.

COLD WAR COST ESTIMATING GUIDES

Presented below is a list of cost estimating guides, instructions, and methodologies used during the Cold War.  These are few of the more interesting and historical ones from military departments and agencies that were unclassified and not restricted. 

If copies are needed, please contact the original publishing organization.  It is assumed that estimators and analysts will naturally obtain updated versions for any current costing projects.

These have been added to our Cold War Cost Library web site at this time to make sure readers don’t get the impression that all costing was done based solely on popular magazine articles referenced in our historical database. 

1. "Cost Estimating Procedures," 17 April 1972, Air Force Systems Command Manual, AFSCM-173-1, Headquarters Air Force Systems Command, Department `of the Air Force.

2. "USAF Cost and Planning Factors Guide," 31 May 1979, AFP 173-13, United States Air Force.

3. "Instructions and Formats, Contractor Cost Study," 1963, United States Air Force, Air Force Systems Command, DCS/Comptroller, Directorate of Cost Analysis.

4. "Research and Development Cost Guide for Army Material Systems," Department of the Army Pamphlet No. 11-2, April 1976, Headquarters, Department of the Army.

5. "Investment Cost Guide for Army Materiel Systems," Department of the Army Pamphlet No. 11-3, April 1976, Headquarters, Department of the Army.

6. "Operating and Support Cost Guide for Army Materiel Systems," Department of the Army Pamphlet No. 11-4, April 1976, Headquarters, Department of the Army.

7. "Standards for Presentation and Documentation of Life Cycle Cost Estimates for Army Material Systems," Department of the Army Pamphlet No. 11-5, May 1976, Headquarters, Department of the Army.

8. "Investment Costing Guide," Army Weapon Systems, 1 May 1975, DCA-R-S, Directorate of Cost Analysis, Office of the Comptroller of the Army.

9. "Defense Communications Agency Cost and Planning Factors Manual, March 1983, DCA Circular 600-60-1, Defense Communications Agency.

10. "Life Cycle Costing Procurement Guide", (Interim), LCC-1, July 1970, Department of Defense.

11. "Casebook Life Cycle Costing in Equipment Procurement," LCC-2, July 1970, Department of Defense.

12. "Life Cycle Costing Guide for System Acquisition," (Interim), LCC-3, January 1973, Department of Defense.

13. "Cost Effectiveness Program Plan for Joint Tactical Communications," Volume III, Life Cycle Costing, June 1976, TTO-ORT-032-76B-V3, Joint Tactical Communications Office, Fort Monmouth, N.J.

:
SECTION 5

ABOUT US

If anybody is searching for Cold War cost estimates and related data that can’t be found
in this library, please contact Heuston Consulting, Inc. Although our web library is free
and consultation is free to some extent, a small fee will be charged for any additional
search service. There are ways to check the validity and quality of these estimates and to
expand the data for systems in these early years of history. We will be happy to help. We
have stored away several of the original cost research reports that the publishing
companies have now said they can not find.

If you have any comments, corrections, or cost estimates you wish to contribute to the
library, please contact us by email at heustonconsulting@cox.net. Use our special
PayPal account "Buy Now" icon below for payments for special extra search requests.
We will respect your private non-disclosure requests, if appropriate, and any caveats that
may have been on the original reports.

Heuston Consulting, Inc.
Telephone 480-563-1022, Fax 480-502-2029

 New Address after 12/04/10
23005 N. 74th Street, #1107
 Scottsdale, AZ 85255

Disclaimer: Heuston Consulting, Inc. is not responsible for the quality and accuracy of any of the cost references and other data contained in the database of this LIBRARY. Please use the data at your own risk. Every effort has been made to transcribe as accurately as possible handwritten records to digital format. Copyright obligations and any other restrictions, if they existed at time the sources were published, have been respected by including the titles, dates, and page references. No additional details are known at this time.